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Csornai SE vs Dorogi FC — NB III - Northwest 2019

Csornai SE
Csornai SE
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Dorogi FC
Dorogi FC
4/14/2024NB III - NorthwestNB III - Northwest · Northwest - 24Kocsis István Városi Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Csornai SE34%
×Draw24%
Dorogi FC42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Csornai SE
1.43
Dorogi FC
1.63

Dorogi FC creates 14% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 45 away

creates per match

Csornai SE
1.27
Dorogi FC
1.38

allows per match

Csornai SE
1.87
Dorogi FC
1.58

finishing

Csornai SE+0.00on par
Dorogi FC+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Csornai SE ↓

Dorogi FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Csornai SE or draw
58%
Csornai SE or Dorogi FC
76%
Draw or Dorogi FC
66%

Winning margin

Csornai SE wins by 2+
15%
Dorogi FC wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Csornai SE 1+ goals
76%
Csornai SE 2+ goals
42%
Csornai SE 3+ goals
17%
Dorogi FC 1+ goals
80%
Dorogi FC 2+ goals
48%
Dorogi FC 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Csornai SE (draw refunded)
44%
Dorogi FC (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Csornai SE at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.87 · 15 matches

Dorogi FC away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.58 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Csornai SE attack 1.27 + Dorogi FC defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.43

Dorogi FC attack 1.38 + Csornai SE defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Csornai SE scores more
34%
level
24%
Dorogi FC scores more
42%

Dorogi FC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Dorogi FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Csornai SE vs Dorogi FC

Dorogi FC beat Csornai SE 2-1 in NB III - Northwest on April 14, 2024.

The match was played at Kocsis István Városi Sporttelep in Csorna.