Dorogi FC 1–2 Balatonfüredi: Result & Stats

Dorogi FC

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Balatonfüredi

9/22/2024

NB III - Northwest · Northwest - 8Buzánszky Jenő Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Dorogi FC53%

×Draw23%

Balatonfüredi24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dorogi FCExpected goals in this matchBalatonfüredi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.10

Dorogi FC

1.77

Balatonfüredi

1.10

Dorogi FC creates 61% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 45 away

1.47

creates per match

0.96

1.24

allows per match

2.07

creates per match

Dorogi FC

1.47

Balatonfüredi

0.96

allows per match

Dorogi FC

1.24

Balatonfüredi

2.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dorogi FC+0.00on par

Balatonfüredi+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dorogi FC ↓

Balatonfüredi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Dorogi FC or draw

76%

Dorogi FC or Balatonfüredi

77%

Draw or Balatonfüredi

47%

Winning margin

Dorogi FC wins by 2+

29%

Balatonfüredi wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Dorogi FC 1+ goals

83%

Dorogi FC 2+ goals

53%

Dorogi FC 3+ goals

26%

Balatonfüredi 1+ goals

67%

Balatonfüredi 2+ goals

30%

Balatonfüredi 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Dorogi FC (draw refunded)

69%

Balatonfüredi (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dorogi FC at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.24 · 45 matches

Balatonfüredi away — creates 0.96, concedes 2.07 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dorogi FC attack 1.47 + Balatonfüredi defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.77

Balatonfüredi attack 0.96 + Dorogi FC defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Dorogi FC scores more

53%

level

23%

Balatonfüredi scores more

24%

Dorogi FC at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Dorogi FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff