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Balatonfüredi vs Dorogi FC — NB III - Northwest 2019

Balatonfüredi
Balatonfüredi
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 3
Dorogi FC
Dorogi FC
5/3/2026NB III - NorthwestNB III - Northwest · Northwest - 27Balatonfüredi Városi Sportpálya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Balatonfüredi33%
×Draw26%
Dorogi FC41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Balatonfüredi
1.25
Dorogi FC
1.44

Dorogi FC creates 15% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 45 away

creates per match

Balatonfüredi
0.91
Dorogi FC
1.38

allows per match

Balatonfüredi
1.49
Dorogi FC
1.58

finishing

Balatonfüredi+0.00on par
Dorogi FC+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Balatonfüredi ↓

Dorogi FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Balatonfüredi or draw
59%
Balatonfüredi or Dorogi FC
74%
Draw or Dorogi FC
67%

Winning margin

Balatonfüredi wins by 2+
14%
Dorogi FC wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Balatonfüredi 1+ goals
71%
Balatonfüredi 2+ goals
36%
Balatonfüredi 3+ goals
13%
Dorogi FC 1+ goals
76%
Dorogi FC 2+ goals
42%
Dorogi FC 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Balatonfüredi (draw refunded)
44%
Dorogi FC (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Balatonfüredi at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.49 · 45 matches

Dorogi FC away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.58 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Balatonfüredi attack 0.91 + Dorogi FC defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.25

Dorogi FC attack 1.38 + Balatonfüredi defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Balatonfüredi scores more
33%
level
26%
Dorogi FC scores more
41%

Dorogi FC at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Dorogi FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Northwest: Balatonfüredi 1–3 Dorogi FC

Dorogi FC beat Balatonfüredi 3-1 in NB III - Northwest on May 3, 2026.

The match was played at Balatonfüredi Városi Sportpálya in Balatonfüred.