Dornbirner SV 1–7 Austria Salzburg: Result & Stats

Dornbirner SV

FT

1 – 7

HT: 0 – 4

Austria Salzburg

6/8/2024

Regionalliga - West · West - 30EMMA & EUGEN Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Dornbirner SV24%

×Draw21%

Austria Salzburg55%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dornbirner SVExpected goals in this matchAustria Salzburg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

2.09

Dornbirner SV

1.33

Austria Salzburg

2.09

Austria Salzburg creates 57% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 32 away

1.61

creates per match

2.25

1.94

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Dornbirner SV

1.61

Austria Salzburg

2.25

allows per match

Dornbirner SV

1.94

Austria Salzburg

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dornbirner SV+0.00on par

Austria Salzburg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dornbirner SV ↓

Austria Salzburg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–17%

0–27%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Dornbirner SV or draw

45%

Dornbirner SV or Austria Salzburg

79%

Draw or Austria Salzburg

76%

Winning margin

Dornbirner SV wins by 2+

10%

Austria Salzburg wins by 2+

33%

Team goals

Dornbirner SV 1+ goals

74%

Dornbirner SV 2+ goals

38%

Dornbirner SV 3+ goals

15%

Austria Salzburg 1+ goals

88%

Austria Salzburg 2+ goals

62%

Austria Salzburg 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Dornbirner SV (draw refunded)

31%

Austria Salzburg (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dornbirner SV at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.94 · 51 matches

Austria Salzburg away — creates 2.25, concedes 1.06 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dornbirner SV attack 1.61 + Austria Salzburg defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.33

Austria Salzburg attack 2.25 + Dornbirner SV defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 2.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Dornbirner SV scores more

24%

level

21%

Austria Salzburg scores more

55%

Austria Salzburg at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Austria Salzburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff