Austria Salzburg 4–2 Dornbirner SV: Result & Stats

Austria Salzburg

FT

4 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

Dornbirner SV

11/4/2023

Regionalliga - West · West - 15Max-Aicher-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Austria Salzburg65%

×Draw17%

Dornbirner SV17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Austria SalzburgExpected goals in this matchDornbirner SV

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.63

1.30

Austria Salzburg

2.63

Dornbirner SV

1.30

Austria Salzburg creates 102% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 51 away

3.03

creates per match

1.57

1.03

allows per match

2.24

creates per match

Austria Salzburg

3.03

Dornbirner SV

1.57

allows per match

Austria Salzburg

1.03

Dornbirner SV

2.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Austria Salzburg+0.00on par

Dornbirner SV+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Austria Salzburg ↓

Dornbirner SV →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

54%46%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Austria Salzburg or draw

83%

Austria Salzburg or Dornbirner SV

83%

Draw or Dornbirner SV

35%

Winning margin

Austria Salzburg wins by 2+

44%

Dornbirner SV wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Austria Salzburg 1+ goals

93%

Austria Salzburg 2+ goals

73%

Austria Salzburg 3+ goals

48%

Dornbirner SV 1+ goals

73%

Dornbirner SV 2+ goals

37%

Dornbirner SV 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Austria Salzburg (draw refunded)

79%

Dornbirner SV (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Austria Salzburg at home — creates 3.03, concedes 1.03 · 32 matches

Dornbirner SV away — creates 1.57, concedes 2.24 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Austria Salzburg attack 3.03 + Dornbirner SV defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 2.63

Dornbirner SV attack 1.57 + Austria Salzburg defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Austria Salzburg scores more

65%

level

17%

Dornbirner SV scores more

17%

Austria Salzburg at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Austria Salzburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff