Dornach 2–2 Concordia Basel: Result & Stats

Dornach

FT

2 – 2

Concordia Basel

8/13/2022

1. Liga Classic - Group 2 · Group 2 - 2Sportanlage Gigersloch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Dornach28%

×Draw23%

Concordia Basel49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DornachExpected goals in this matchConcordia Basel

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.83

Dornach

1.32

Concordia Basel

1.83

Concordia Basel creates 39% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 60 away

0.87

creates per match

1.93

1.73

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Dornach

0.87

Concordia Basel

1.93

allows per match

Dornach

1.73

Concordia Basel

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dornach+0.00on par

Concordia Basel+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dornach ↓

Concordia Basel →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Dornach or draw

51%

Dornach or Concordia Basel

77%

Draw or Concordia Basel

72%

Winning margin

Dornach wins by 2+

12%

Concordia Basel wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Dornach 1+ goals

73%

Dornach 2+ goals

38%

Dornach 3+ goals

15%

Concordia Basel 1+ goals

84%

Concordia Basel 2+ goals

54%

Concordia Basel 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Dornach (draw refunded)

36%

Concordia Basel (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dornach at home — creates 0.87, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

Concordia Basel away — creates 1.93, concedes 1.77 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dornach attack 0.87 + Concordia Basel defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.32

Concordia Basel attack 1.93 + Dornach defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Dornach scores more

28%

level

23%

Concordia Basel scores more

49%

Concordia Basel at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Concordia Basel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff