Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Concordia Basel vs Dornach — 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 2019

Concordia Basel
Concordia Basel
FT
2 – 0
Dornach
Dornach
2/26/20231. Liga Classic - Group 21. Liga Classic - Group 2 · Group 2 - 17Leichtathletik-Stadion St. Jakob

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Concordia Basel53%
×Draw21%
Dornach26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Concordia Basel
2.06
Dornach
1.39

Concordia Basel creates 48% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 15 away

creates per match

Concordia Basel
1.85
Dornach
1.60

allows per match

Concordia Basel
1.18
Dornach
2.27

finishing

Concordia Basel+0.00on par
Dornach+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Concordia Basel ↓

Dornach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Concordia Basel or draw
74%
Concordia Basel or Dornach
79%
Draw or Dornach
47%

Winning margin

Concordia Basel wins by 2+
31%
Dornach wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Concordia Basel 1+ goals
87%
Concordia Basel 2+ goals
61%
Concordia Basel 3+ goals
34%
Dornach 1+ goals
75%
Dornach 2+ goals
40%
Dornach 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Concordia Basel (draw refunded)
67%
Dornach (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Concordia Basel at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.18 · 60 matches

Dornach away — creates 1.60, concedes 2.27 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Concordia Basel attack 1.85 + Dornach defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 2.06

Dornach attack 1.60 + Concordia Basel defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Concordia Basel scores more
53%
level
21%
Dornach scores more
26%

Concordia Basel at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Concordia Basel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga Classic - Group 2: Concordia Basel 2–0 Dornach

Concordia Basel beat Dornach 2-0 in 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 on February 26, 2023.

The match was played at Leichtathletik-Stadion St. Jakob in Basel.