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Dormaa vs Berekum Arsenal — Division One League 2025

Dormaa
Dormaa
FT
5 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Berekum Arsenal
Berekum Arsenal
1/12/2026Division One LeagueDivision One League · Round 15

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Dormaa64%
×Draw18%
Berekum Arsenal17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dormaa
2.42
Berekum Arsenal
1.18

Dormaa creates 105% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 13 away

creates per match

Dormaa
2.21
Berekum Arsenal
1.00

allows per match

Dormaa
1.36
Berekum Arsenal
2.62

finishing

Dormaa+0.00on par
Berekum Arsenal+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dormaa ↓

Berekum Arsenal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Dormaa or draw
83%
Dormaa or Berekum Arsenal
82%
Draw or Berekum Arsenal
36%

Winning margin

Dormaa wins by 2+
42%
Berekum Arsenal wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Dormaa 1+ goals
91%
Dormaa 2+ goals
69%
Dormaa 3+ goals
43%
Berekum Arsenal 1+ goals
69%
Berekum Arsenal 2+ goals
33%
Berekum Arsenal 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Dormaa (draw refunded)
79%
Berekum Arsenal (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dormaa at home — creates 2.21, concedes 1.36 · 14 matches

Berekum Arsenal away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.62 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dormaa attack 2.21 + Berekum Arsenal defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 2.42

Berekum Arsenal attack 1.00 + Dormaa defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Dormaa scores more
64%
level
18%
Berekum Arsenal scores more
17%

Dormaa at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Dormaa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division One League: Dormaa 5–0 Berekum Arsenal

Dormaa beat Berekum Arsenal 5-0 in Division One League on January 12, 2026.