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Berekum Arsenal vs Dormaa — Division One League 2025

Berekum Arsenal
Berekum Arsenal
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Dormaa
Dormaa
3/21/2026Division One LeagueDivision One League · Round 23

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Berekum Arsenal50%
×Draw21%
Dormaa29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Berekum Arsenal
2.18
Dormaa
1.65

Berekum Arsenal creates 32% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 14 away

creates per match

Berekum Arsenal
2.07
Dormaa
1.86

allows per match

Berekum Arsenal
1.43
Dormaa
2.29

finishing

Berekum Arsenal+0.00on par
Dormaa+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Berekum Arsenal ↓

Dormaa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Berekum Arsenal or draw
71%
Berekum Arsenal or Dormaa
79%
Draw or Dormaa
50%

Winning margin

Berekum Arsenal wins by 2+
29%
Dormaa wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Berekum Arsenal 1+ goals
89%
Berekum Arsenal 2+ goals
64%
Berekum Arsenal 3+ goals
37%
Dormaa 1+ goals
81%
Dormaa 2+ goals
49%
Dormaa 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Berekum Arsenal (draw refunded)
63%
Dormaa (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Berekum Arsenal at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.43 · 14 matches

Dormaa away — creates 1.86, concedes 2.29 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Berekum Arsenal attack 2.07 + Dormaa defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.18

Dormaa attack 1.86 + Berekum Arsenal defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Berekum Arsenal scores more
50%
level
21%
Dormaa scores more
29%

Berekum Arsenal at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Berekum Arsenal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Berekum Arsenal vs Dormaa

Berekum Arsenal beat Dormaa 3-2 in Division One League on March 21, 2026.