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Dordoi Bishkek vs Altyn Asyr — AFC Cup 2018

Dordoi Bishkek
Dordoi Bishkek
CANC
00:00
Altyn Asyr
Altyn Asyr
10/20/2020AFC CupAFC Cup · Group Stage - 1Stadion im. Dolena Omurzakova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Dordoi Bishkek39%
×Draw24%
Altyn Asyr36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dordoi Bishkek
1.52
Altyn Asyr
1.45

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 21 away

creates per match

Dordoi Bishkek
1.17
Altyn Asyr
1.57

allows per match

Dordoi Bishkek
1.33
Altyn Asyr
1.86

finishing

Dordoi Bishkek+0.00on par
Altyn Asyr+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dordoi Bishkek ↓

Altyn Asyr →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Dordoi Bishkek or draw
64%
Dordoi Bishkek or Altyn Asyr
76%
Draw or Altyn Asyr
61%

Winning margin

Dordoi Bishkek wins by 2+
19%
Altyn Asyr wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Dordoi Bishkek 1+ goals
78%
Dordoi Bishkek 2+ goals
45%
Dordoi Bishkek 3+ goals
20%
Altyn Asyr 1+ goals
77%
Altyn Asyr 2+ goals
42%
Altyn Asyr 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Dordoi Bishkek (draw refunded)
52%
Altyn Asyr (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dordoi Bishkek at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

Altyn Asyr away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.86 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dordoi Bishkek attack 1.17 + Altyn Asyr defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.52

Altyn Asyr attack 1.57 + Dordoi Bishkek defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Dordoi Bishkek scores more
39%
level
24%
Altyn Asyr scores more
36%

Dordoi Bishkek at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Dordoi Bishkek will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Dordoi Bishkek vs Altyn Asyr — Match Preview

Dordoi Bishkek face Altyn Asyr on October 20, 2020 in this AFC Cup fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Dordoi Bishkek host Altyn Asyr at Stadion im. Dolena Omurzakova.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.