Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Altyn Asyr vs Dordoi Bishkek — AFC Cup 2018

Altyn Asyr
Altyn Asyr
CANC
00:00
Dordoi Bishkek
Dordoi Bishkek
11/1/2020AFC CupAFC Cup · Group Stage - 5Aşgabat Stadiony

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Altyn Asyr47%
×Draw24%
Dordoi Bishkek29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Altyn Asyr
1.73
Dordoi Bishkek
1.31

Altyn Asyr creates 32% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 6 away

creates per match

Altyn Asyr
1.47
Dordoi Bishkek
1.33

allows per match

Altyn Asyr
1.29
Dordoi Bishkek
2.00

finishing

Altyn Asyr+0.00on par
Dordoi Bishkek+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Altyn Asyr ↓

Dordoi Bishkek →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Altyn Asyr or draw
71%
Altyn Asyr or Dordoi Bishkek
76%
Draw or Dordoi Bishkek
53%

Winning margin

Altyn Asyr wins by 2+
25%
Dordoi Bishkek wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Altyn Asyr 1+ goals
82%
Altyn Asyr 2+ goals
52%
Altyn Asyr 3+ goals
25%
Dordoi Bishkek 1+ goals
73%
Dordoi Bishkek 2+ goals
38%
Dordoi Bishkek 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Altyn Asyr (draw refunded)
62%
Dordoi Bishkek (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Altyn Asyr at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

Dordoi Bishkek away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Altyn Asyr attack 1.47 + Dordoi Bishkek defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.73

Dordoi Bishkek attack 1.33 + Altyn Asyr defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Altyn Asyr scores more
47%
level
24%
Dordoi Bishkek scores more
29%

Altyn Asyr at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Altyn Asyr will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Altyn Asyr vs Dordoi Bishkek — Match Preview

Altyn Asyr face Dordoi Bishkek on November 1, 2020 in this AFC Cup fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Altyn Asyr host Dordoi Bishkek at Aşgabat Stadiony.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.