Dordoi Bishkek 1–3 Ahal: Result & Stats | AFC Cup

Dordoi Bishkek

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Ahal

1/23/2018

AFC Cup · Preliminary RoundStadion Dordoy (Bishkek)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Dordoi Bishkek30%

×Draw26%

Ahal43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dordoi BishkekExpected goals in this matchAhal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.44

Dordoi Bishkek

1.16

Ahal

1.44

Ahal creates 24% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 13 away

1.17

creates per match

1.54

1.33

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Dordoi Bishkek

1.17

Ahal

1.54

allows per match

Dordoi Bishkek

1.33

Ahal

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dordoi Bishkek+0.00on par

Ahal+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dordoi Bishkek ↓

Ahal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Dordoi Bishkek or draw

57%

Dordoi Bishkek or Ahal

74%

Draw or Ahal

70%

Winning margin

Dordoi Bishkek wins by 2+

12%

Ahal wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Dordoi Bishkek 1+ goals

69%

Dordoi Bishkek 2+ goals

32%

Dordoi Bishkek 3+ goals

11%

Ahal 1+ goals

76%

Ahal 2+ goals

42%

Ahal 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Dordoi Bishkek (draw refunded)

41%

Ahal (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dordoi Bishkek at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

Ahal away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dordoi Bishkek attack 1.17 + Ahal defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.16

Ahal attack 1.54 + Dordoi Bishkek defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Dordoi Bishkek scores more

30%

level

26%

Ahal scores more

43%

Ahal at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Ahal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff