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Ahal vs Dordoi Bishkek — AFC Cup 2018

Ahal
Ahal
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Dordoi Bishkek
Dordoi Bishkek
1/30/2018AFC CupAFC Cup · Preliminary RoundBalkanabat Stadiony (Balkanabat)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Ahal50%
×Draw24%
Dordoi Bishkek26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ahal
1.70
Dordoi Bishkek
1.17

Ahal creates 45% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 6 away

creates per match

Ahal
1.40
Dordoi Bishkek
1.33

allows per match

Ahal
1.00
Dordoi Bishkek
2.00

finishing

Ahal+0.00on par
Dordoi Bishkek+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ahal ↓

Dordoi Bishkek →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Ahal or draw
74%
Ahal or Dordoi Bishkek
76%
Draw or Dordoi Bishkek
50%

Winning margin

Ahal wins by 2+
27%
Dordoi Bishkek wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Ahal 1+ goals
82%
Ahal 2+ goals
51%
Ahal 3+ goals
24%
Dordoi Bishkek 1+ goals
69%
Dordoi Bishkek 2+ goals
33%
Dordoi Bishkek 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Ahal (draw refunded)
65%
Dordoi Bishkek (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ahal at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.00 · 10 matches

Dordoi Bishkek away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ahal attack 1.40 + Dordoi Bishkek defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.70

Dordoi Bishkek attack 1.33 + Ahal defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Ahal scores more
50%
level
24%
Dordoi Bishkek scores more
26%

Ahal at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Ahal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ahal vs Dordoi Bishkek

Ahal and Dordoi Bishkek drew 2-2 in AFC Cup on January 30, 2018.

The match was played at Balkanabat Stadiony (Balkanabat).