Dong Nai 0–1 Da Nang: Result & Stats | V.League 2

Dong Nai

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Da Nang

3/30/2024

V.League 2 · Round 13Sân vận động Đồng Nai

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Dong Nai23%

×Draw30%

Da Nang47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dong NaiExpected goals in this matchDa Nang

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.77

1.23

Dong Nai

0.77

Da Nang

1.23

Da Nang creates 60% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 10 away

0.85

creates per match

1.90

0.55

allows per match

0.70

creates per match

Dong Nai

0.85

Da Nang

1.90

allows per match

Dong Nai

0.55

Da Nang

0.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dong Nai+0.00on par

Da Nang+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dong Nai ↓

Da Nang →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–117%

0–210%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–15%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Dong Nai or draw

53%

Dong Nai or Da Nang

70%

Draw or Da Nang

77%

Winning margin

Dong Nai wins by 2+

7%

Da Nang wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Dong Nai 1+ goals

54%

Dong Nai 2+ goals

18%

Dong Nai 3+ goals

4%

Da Nang 1+ goals

71%

Da Nang 2+ goals

35%

Da Nang 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Dong Nai (draw refunded)

33%

Da Nang (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dong Nai at home — creates 0.85, concedes 0.55 · 20 matches

Da Nang away — creates 1.90, concedes 0.70 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dong Nai attack 0.85 + Da Nang defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.77

Da Nang attack 1.90 + Dong Nai defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Dong Nai scores more

23%

level

30%

Da Nang scores more

47%

Da Nang at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Da Nang will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff