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Da Nang vs Dong Nai — V.League 2 2020

Da Nang
Da Nang
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Dong Nai
Dong Nai
2/18/2024V.League 2V.League 2 · Round 9Sân Vận Động Hòa Xuân

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Da Nang70%
×Draw23%
Dong Nai7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Da Nang
1.65
Dong Nai
0.35

Da Nang creates 371% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 20 away

creates per match

Da Nang
1.80
Dong Nai
0.40

allows per match

Da Nang
0.30
Dong Nai
1.50

finishing

Da Nang+0.00on par
Dong Nai+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

76%No
  • No76
  • Yes24

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Da Nang ↓

Dong Nai →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–15%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–022%
1–18%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–018%
2–16%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (22%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Da Nang or draw
93%
Da Nang or Dong Nai
77%
Draw or Dong Nai
30%

Winning margin

Da Nang wins by 2+
41%
Dong Nai wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Da Nang 1+ goals
81%
Da Nang 2+ goals
49%
Da Nang 3+ goals
23%
Dong Nai 1+ goals
30%
Dong Nai 2+ goals
5%
Dong Nai 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Da Nang (draw refunded)
90%
Dong Nai (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
16%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Da Nang at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.30 · 10 matches

Dong Nai away — creates 0.40, concedes 1.50 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Da Nang attack 1.80 + Dong Nai defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.65

Dong Nai attack 0.40 + Da Nang defence 0.30 → ÷2 → 0.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Da Nang scores more
70%
level
23%
Dong Nai scores more
7%

Da Nang at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Da Nang will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

V.League 2: Da Nang 1–0 Dong Nai

Da Nang beat Dong Nai 1-0 in V.League 2 on February 18, 2024.

The match was played at Sân Vận Động Hòa Xuân in Da Nang.