Dong Nai 1–3 Bóng đá Huế: Result & Stats

Dong Nai

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Bóng đá Huế

11/2/2024

V.League 2 · Round 2Sân vận động Đồng Nai

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Dong Nai47%

×Draw30%

Bóng đá Huế23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dong NaiExpected goals in this matchBóng đá Huế

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

0.76

Dong Nai

1.22

Bóng đá Huế

0.76

Dong Nai creates 61% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 51 away

0.85

creates per match

0.96

0.55

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Dong Nai

0.85

Bóng đá Huế

0.96

allows per match

Dong Nai

0.55

Bóng đá Huế

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dong Nai+0.00on par

Bóng đá Huế+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dong Nai ↓

Bóng đá Huế →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Dong Nai or draw

77%

Dong Nai or Bóng đá Huế

70%

Draw or Bóng đá Huế

53%

Winning margin

Dong Nai wins by 2+

21%

Bóng đá Huế wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Dong Nai 1+ goals

70%

Dong Nai 2+ goals

34%

Dong Nai 3+ goals

12%

Bóng đá Huế 1+ goals

53%

Bóng đá Huế 2+ goals

18%

Bóng đá Huế 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Dong Nai (draw refunded)

67%

Bóng đá Huế (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dong Nai at home — creates 0.85, concedes 0.55 · 20 matches

Bóng đá Huế away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.59 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dong Nai attack 0.85 + Bóng đá Huế defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.22

Bóng đá Huế attack 0.96 + Dong Nai defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Dong Nai scores more

47%

level

30%

Bóng đá Huế scores more

23%

Dong Nai at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Dong Nai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff