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Bóng đá Huế vs Dong Nai — V.League 2 2020

Bóng đá Huế
Bóng đá Huế
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Dong Nai
Dong Nai
5/5/2024V.League 2V.League 2 · Round 15Sân vận động Tự Do

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Bóng đá Huế52%
×Draw29%
Dong Nai19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bóng đá Huế
1.28
Dong Nai
0.65

Bóng đá Huế creates 97% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 20 away

creates per match

Bóng đá Huế
1.06
Dong Nai
0.40

allows per match

Bóng đá Huế
0.90
Dong Nai
1.50

finishing

Bóng đá Huế+0.00on par
Dong Nai+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bóng đá Huế ↓

Dong Nai →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Bóng đá Huế or draw
81%
Bóng đá Huế or Dong Nai
71%
Draw or Dong Nai
48%

Winning margin

Bóng đá Huế wins by 2+
24%
Dong Nai wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Bóng đá Huế 1+ goals
72%
Bóng đá Huế 2+ goals
37%
Bóng đá Huế 3+ goals
14%
Dong Nai 1+ goals
48%
Dong Nai 2+ goals
14%
Dong Nai 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Bóng đá Huế (draw refunded)
73%
Dong Nai (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bóng đá Huế at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.90 · 51 matches

Dong Nai away — creates 0.40, concedes 1.50 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bóng đá Huế attack 1.06 + Dong Nai defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.28

Dong Nai attack 0.40 + Bóng đá Huế defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Bóng đá Huế scores more
52%
level
29%
Dong Nai scores more
19%

Bóng đá Huế at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Bóng đá Huế will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bóng đá Huế vs Dong Nai

Dong Nai beat Bóng đá Huế 2-0 in V.League 2 on May 5, 2024.

The match was played at Sân vận động Tự Do in Hue.