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Doncaster vs Stockport County — League One 2025

Doncaster
Doncaster
Preview
18:45
Stockport County
Stockport County
10/20/2026League OneLeague One · Round 12Eco-Power Stadium
Big match
57%
Doncaster
model favours
57%22%21%

Stockport County have won 5 of the last 5 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
57%
over 2.5 goals
56%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Doncaster57%
×Draw22%
Stockport County21%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Doncaster
1.92
Stockport County
1.06

Doncaster creates 81% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 5 away

creates per match

Doncaster
1.95
Stockport County
1.08

allows per match

Doncaster
1.04
Stockport County
1.89

finishing

Doncaster-0.45scores less
Stockport County-0.08on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Doncaster ↓

Stockport County →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Doncaster or draw
79%
Doncaster or Stockport County
78%
Draw or Stockport County
43%

Winning margin

Doncaster wins by 2+
34%
Stockport County wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Doncaster 1+ goals
85%
Doncaster 2+ goals
57%
Doncaster 3+ goals
30%
Stockport County 1+ goals
65%
Stockport County 2+ goals
29%
Stockport County 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Doncaster (draw refunded)
74%
Stockport County (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Doncaster at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.04 · 10 matches

Stockport County away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.89 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Doncaster attack 1.95 + Stockport County defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.92

Stockport County attack 1.08 + Doncaster defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Doncaster scores more
57%
level
22%
Stockport County scores more
21%

Doncaster at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Doncaster will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Doncaster win just 17% against the top half (vs 59% against the bottom)
  • Doncaster sit 14, Stockport County 4 in the table
  • Doncaster fall short of their xG (1.1 vs 1.9 expected)
  • Stockport County outscore their xG (1.7 vs 1.3 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Doncaster
Defensively solid
Stockport County
Balanced
50%Possession53%
70%Pass accuracy75%
12.3Shots12.1
1.93xGBiggest gap1.33
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
DoncasterStockport County

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

0
Doncaster
0
Draws
5
Stockport County
Avg goals: 3.2BTTS: 40%
0–12–40–21–50–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Doncaster
WWWDL
County
LWWWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Doncaster host Stockport County

October 20, 2026: Doncaster take on Stockport County in League One. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Doncaster host Stockport County at Eco-Power Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.