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Doncaster vs Stevenage — League One 2022

Doncaster
Doncaster
Preview
15:00
Stevenage
Stevenage
2/6/2027League OneLeague One · Round 29Eco-Power Stadium
Big match
37%
Doncaster
model favours
37%27%35%

Doncaster win just 17% against the top half (vs 59% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
56%
under 2.5 goals
49%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Doncaster37%
×Draw27%
Stevenage35%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Doncaster
1.24
Stevenage
1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 40 home / 70 away

creates per match

Doncaster
1.25
Stevenage
0.94

allows per match

Doncaster
1.45
Stevenage
1.23

finishing

Doncaster+0.00on par
Stevenage+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Doncaster ↓

Stevenage →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Doncaster or draw
65%
Doncaster or Stevenage
73%
Draw or Stevenage
63%

Winning margin

Doncaster wins by 2+
16%
Stevenage wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Doncaster 1+ goals
71%
Doncaster 2+ goals
35%
Doncaster 3+ goals
13%
Stevenage 1+ goals
70%
Stevenage 2+ goals
33%
Stevenage 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Doncaster (draw refunded)
52%
Stevenage (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Doncaster at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.45 · 40 matches

Stevenage away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.23 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Doncaster attack 1.25 + Stevenage defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.24

Stevenage attack 0.94 + Doncaster defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Doncaster scores more
37%
level
27%
Stevenage scores more
35%

Doncaster at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Doncaster will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Style contrast — Doncaster play Defensively solid, Stevenage Direct / counter-attacking
  • Their last 5 meetings averaged just 1 goals
  • Doncaster fall short of their xG (1.1 vs 1.9 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Doncaster
Defensively solid
Stevenage
Direct / counter-attacking
50%Possession42%
71%Pass accuracy64%
12.3Shots9.9
1.95xGBiggest gap0.99
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
DoncasterStevenage

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

1
Doncaster
2
Draws
2
Stevenage
Avg goals: 1BTTS: 20%
1–10–00–10–11–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Doncaster
WWWDL
Stevenage
LLWDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Doncaster vs Stevenage — Match Preview

Doncaster face Stevenage on February 6, 2027 in this League One fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Doncaster host Stevenage at Eco-Power Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.