Doncaster 2–1 Peterborough: Result & Stats

Doncaster

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Peterborough

J. Gibson 24', 7'

H. Leonard 50'

11/29/2025

League One · Round 18Eco-Power Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Doncaster37%

×Draw26%

Peterborough37%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DoncasterExpected goals in this matchPeterborough

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

Doncaster

1.38

Peterborough

1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 25 home / 31 away

1.20

creates per match

1.32

1.44

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Doncaster

1.20

Peterborough

1.32

allows per match

Doncaster

1.44

Peterborough

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Doncaster+0.00on par

Peterborough+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Doncaster ↓

Peterborough →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Doncaster or draw

63%

Doncaster or Peterborough

74%

Draw or Peterborough

63%

Winning margin

Doncaster wins by 2+

17%

Peterborough wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Doncaster 1+ goals

75%

Doncaster 2+ goals

40%

Doncaster 3+ goals

16%

Peterborough 1+ goals

75%

Peterborough 2+ goals

40%

Peterborough 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Doncaster (draw refunded)

50%

Peterborough (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Doncaster at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.44 · 25 matches

Peterborough away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.55 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Doncaster attack 1.20 + Peterborough defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.38

Peterborough attack 1.32 + Doncaster defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Doncaster scores more

37%

level

26%

Peterborough scores more

37%

Doncaster at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Doncaster will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

J. Gibson

Doncaster · M

8.6

Match Events

7'

J. Gibson↳ L. Molyneux

24'

J. Gibson↳ G. Broadbent

32'

33'

34'

46'

46'

H. Leonard← J. Morgan

50'

H. Leonard↳ A. Collins

61'

62'

65'

69'

71'

G. Lindgren← K. Lisbie

73'

S. Grehan← J. Gibson

76'

James Maxwell

77'

Benjamin Woods

84'

G. Middleton← L. Molyneux

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DoncasterPeterborough

Overview

36%Possession64%

11Total Shots10

0.52Expected Goals (xG)0.81

3Corners4

16Fouls13

Shots

11Total Shots10

4On Target5

5Off Target2

2Blocked3

6Inside Box5

5Outside Box5

Passing

36%Possession64%

308Total Passes555

211Accurate Passes462

69%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

16Fouls13

5Yellow Cards2

2Offsides4

League One: Doncaster 2–1 Peterborough

Doncaster beat Peterborough 2-1 in League One on November 29, 2025.

Goals: J. Gibson (7', 24'), H. Leonard (50').

Peterborough controlled possession (64%) and registered 10 shots to 11.

The match was played at Eco-Power Stadium in Doncaster.

Doncaster vs Peterborough — League One 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

League One: Doncaster 2–1 Peterborough