Doncaster 1–4 Peterborough: Result & Stats

Doncaster

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 4

Peterborough

T. John-Jules 90+1'

R. Jones 39'

I. Kanu 16'

N. Mason 8'

M. Eisa 6'

5/9/2021

League One · Round 46The Keepmoat Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Doncaster56%

×Draw22%

Peterborough22%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DoncasterExpected goals in this matchPeterborough

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.14

Doncaster

1.94

Peterborough

1.14

Doncaster creates 70% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 12 away

1.95

creates per match

1.24

1.04

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

Doncaster

1.95

Peterborough

1.24

allows per match

Doncaster

1.04

Peterborough

1.94

-0.45scores less than expected

finishing

-0.07on par

finishing

Doncaster-0.45scores less

Peterborough-0.07on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Doncaster ↓

Peterborough →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Doncaster or draw

78%

Doncaster or Peterborough

78%

Draw or Peterborough

44%

Winning margin

Doncaster wins by 2+

33%

Peterborough wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Doncaster 1+ goals

86%

Doncaster 2+ goals

58%

Doncaster 3+ goals

30%

Peterborough 1+ goals

68%

Peterborough 2+ goals

32%

Peterborough 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Doncaster (draw refunded)

72%

Peterborough (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Doncaster at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.04 · 10 matches

Peterborough away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.94 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Doncaster attack 1.95 + Peterborough defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.94

Peterborough attack 1.24 + Doncaster defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Doncaster scores more

56%

level

22%

Peterborough scores more

22%

Doncaster at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Doncaster will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

C. Pym

Peterborough · G

8.2

Match Events

6'

M. Eisa↳ L. Reed

8'

N. Mason↳ J. Ward

16'

I. Kanu

29'

B. Halliday← J. Wright

39'

R. Jones↳ L. Reed

46'

B. Blythe← A. Butler

46'

J. Sims← A. Greaves

68'

F. Blake-Tracy← J. Ward

71'

Madger Antonio← O. Bogle

75'

A. Nascimento← F. Kent

82'

E. Williams← J. Coppinger

83'

K. Barker← L. Reed

83'

W. Blackmore← C. Pym

83'

C. O'Connell← R. Jones

90+1'

T. John-Jules↳ T. Anderson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DoncasterPeterborough

Overview

54%Possession46%

16Total Shots18

6Corners5

5Fouls4

Shots

16Total Shots18

8On Target6

3Off Target8

5Blocked4

12Inside Box8

4Outside Box10

Passing

54%Possession46%

509Total Passes432

419Accurate Passes364

82%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

2Saves7

Discipline

5Fouls4

League One: Doncaster 1–4 Peterborough

Peterborough beat Doncaster 4-1 in League One on May 9, 2021.

Goals: M. Eisa (6'), N. Mason (8'), I. Kanu (16'), R. Jones (39'), T. John-Jules (90+1').

Doncaster controlled possession (54%) and registered 16 shots to 18.

The match was played at The Keepmoat Stadium in Doncaster, South Yorkshire.

Doncaster vs Peterborough — League One 2021

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

League One: Doncaster 1–4 Peterborough