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Doncaster vs Coventry — League One 2018

Doncaster
Doncaster
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Coventry
Coventry
5/4/2019League OneLeague One · Round 46Keepmoat Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Doncaster37%
×Draw26%
Coventry37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Doncaster
1.34
Coventry
1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 112 home / 41 away

creates per match

Doncaster
1.40
Coventry
1.41

allows per match

Doncaster
1.23
Coventry
1.29

finishing

Doncaster+0.00on par
Coventry+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Doncaster ↓

Coventry →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Doncaster or draw
63%
Doncaster or Coventry
74%
Draw or Coventry
63%

Winning margin

Doncaster wins by 2+
17%
Coventry wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Doncaster 1+ goals
74%
Doncaster 2+ goals
39%
Doncaster 3+ goals
15%
Coventry 1+ goals
73%
Coventry 2+ goals
38%
Coventry 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Doncaster (draw refunded)
51%
Coventry (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Doncaster at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.23 · 112 matches

Coventry away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.29 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Doncaster attack 1.40 + Coventry defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.34

Coventry attack 1.41 + Doncaster defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Doncaster scores more
37%
level
26%
Coventry scores more
37%

Doncaster at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Doncaster will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Doncaster 2–0 Coventry

Doncaster beat Coventry 2-0 in League One on May 4, 2019.

The match was played at Keepmoat Stadium in Doncaster.