Coventry 1–1 Doncaster: Result & Stats | League One

Coventry

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Doncaster

9/28/2019

League One · Round 11St Andrew's Trillion Trophy Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Coventry47%

×Draw27%

Doncaster26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CoventryExpected goals in this matchDoncaster

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

0.95

Coventry

1.38

Doncaster

0.95

Coventry creates 45% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 108 away

1.15

creates per match

1.13

0.78

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Coventry

1.15

Doncaster

1.13

allows per match

Coventry

0.78

Doncaster

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Coventry+0.00on par

Doncaster+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coventry ↓

Doncaster →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Coventry or draw

74%

Coventry or Doncaster

73%

Draw or Doncaster

53%

Winning margin

Coventry wins by 2+

22%

Doncaster wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Coventry 1+ goals

75%

Coventry 2+ goals

40%

Coventry 3+ goals

16%

Doncaster 1+ goals

61%

Doncaster 2+ goals

25%

Doncaster 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Coventry (draw refunded)

64%

Doncaster (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coventry at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.78 · 40 matches

Doncaster away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.61 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coventry attack 1.15 + Doncaster defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.38

Doncaster attack 1.13 + Coventry defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Coventry scores more

47%

level

27%

Doncaster scores more

26%

Coventry at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Coventry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff