Doncaster 5–1 Chesterfield: Result & Stats

Doncaster

FT

5 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Chesterfield

B. Sharp 90', 77', 15'

J. Senior 31'

D. Ajayi 19'

L. Bonis 74'

12/2/2025

League #46 · Round of 32Eco-Power Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Doncaster80%

×Draw12%

Chesterfield8%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DoncasterExpected goals in this matchChesterfield

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.33

1.05

Doncaster

3.33

Chesterfield

1.05

Doncaster creates 217% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 3 away

2.00

creates per match

0.67

1.43

allows per match

4.67

creates per match

Doncaster

2.00

Chesterfield

0.67

allows per match

Doncaster

1.43

Chesterfield

4.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Doncaster+0.00on par

Chesterfield+0.00on par

Total goals

Over80
Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Doncaster ↓

Chesterfield →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–15%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–19%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–17%

4–24%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 3–1 (9%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

80%20%3.5

62%38%4.5

41%59%

Double chance

Doncaster or draw

92%

Doncaster or Chesterfield

88%

Draw or Chesterfield

20%

Winning margin

Doncaster wins by 2+

61%

Chesterfield wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Doncaster 1+ goals

96%

Doncaster 2+ goals

84%

Doncaster 3+ goals

63%

Chesterfield 1+ goals

65%

Chesterfield 2+ goals

28%

Chesterfield 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Doncaster (draw refunded)

90%

Chesterfield (draw refunded)

10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Doncaster at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

Chesterfield away — creates 0.67, concedes 4.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Doncaster attack 2.00 + Chesterfield defence 4.67 → ÷2 → 3.33

Chesterfield attack 0.67 + Doncaster defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Doncaster scores more

80%

level

12%

Chesterfield scores more

8%

Doncaster at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Doncaster will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

D. Ajayi

Doncaster

9.2

Match Events

15'

B. Sharp↳ R. Gotts

19'

D. Ajayi↳ B. Sharp

31'

J. Senior↳ D. Ajayi

46'

T. Naylor← L. Butterfield

46'

D. Duffy← G. Elliott

54'

Jamie Grimes

72'

J. Gibson← R. Gotts

73'

L. Molyneux← G. Middleton

73'

L. Bonis← J. Berry-McNally

74'

L. Bonis↳ V. Daley-Campbell

76'

L. Gordon← L. Mandeville

77'

B. Sharp↳ T. Nixon

82'

J. Bryant← T. Lo-Tutala

82'

S. Straughan-Brown← B. Close

87'

C. Cook← R. Darcy

90'

B. Sharp↳ J. Gibson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DoncasterChesterfield

Overview

60%Possession40%

14Total Shots7

5Corners1

10Fouls11

Shots

14Total Shots7

6On Target3

3Off Target2

5Blocked2

9Inside Box4

5Outside Box3

Passing

60%Possession40%

620Total Passes407

544Accurate Passes336

88%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

10Fouls11

0Yellow Cards1

0Offsides1