Chesterfield 5–2 Doncaster: Result & Stats

Chesterfield

FT

5 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Doncaster

O. Banks 90+4'

A. Pepple 59', 37'

M. Olakigbe 54'

D. Duffy 11'

J. Ironside 90+3'

L. Molyneux 45+4'

2/6/2025

League Two · Round 31SMH Group Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Chesterfield44%

×Draw25%

Doncaster31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChesterfieldExpected goals in this matchDoncaster

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.24

Chesterfield

1.53

Doncaster

1.24

Chesterfield creates 23% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 73 away

1.65

creates per match

1.38

1.10

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Chesterfield

1.65

Doncaster

1.38

allows per match

Chesterfield

1.10

Doncaster

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chesterfield+0.00on par

Doncaster+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chesterfield ↓

Doncaster →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Chesterfield or draw

69%

Chesterfield or Doncaster

75%

Draw or Doncaster

56%

Winning margin

Chesterfield wins by 2+

22%

Doncaster wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Chesterfield 1+ goals

78%

Chesterfield 2+ goals

45%

Chesterfield 3+ goals

20%

Doncaster 1+ goals

71%

Doncaster 2+ goals

35%

Doncaster 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Chesterfield (draw refunded)

59%

Doncaster (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chesterfield at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.10 · 49 matches

Doncaster away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.42 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chesterfield attack 1.65 + Doncaster defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.53

Doncaster attack 1.38 + Chesterfield defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Chesterfield scores more

44%

level

25%

Doncaster scores more

31%

Chesterfield at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Chesterfield will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

L. Molyneux

Doncaster · M

8.3

Match Events

11'

29'

37'

42'

45+4'

54'

M. Olakigbe↳ D. Oldaker

56'

Charlie Crew

58'

L. Mandeville← D. Duffy

59'

A. Pepple↳ J. Sparkes

63'

O. Banks← M. Olakigbe

64'

68'

70'

70'

70'

G. Broadbent← C. Crew

70'

E. Ennis← R. Street

71'

J. Gibson← J. Maxwell

75'

Jay McGrath

76'

J. Metcalfe← D. Oldaker

76'

R. Colclough← A. Dobra

84'

Jack Sparkes

90+3'

J. Ironside

90+4'

O. Banks

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ChesterfieldDoncaster

Overview

49%Possession51%

10Total Shots21

7Corners7

11Fouls13

Shots

10Total Shots21

7On Target4

1Off Target8

2Blocked9

9Inside Box15

1Outside Box6

Passing

49%Possession51%

348Total Passes361

254Accurate Passes264

73%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls13

2Yellow Cards4

0Offsides2