Doncaster 1–0 Barrow: Result & Stats | League Two

Doncaster

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Barrow

J. Maxwell 18'

2/14/2023

League Two · Round 32Eco-Power Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Doncaster46%

×Draw26%

Barrow28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DoncasterExpected goals in this matchBarrow

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.08

Doncaster

1.46

Barrow

1.08

Doncaster creates 35% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 138 away

1.47

creates per match

0.99

1.18

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Doncaster

1.47

Barrow

0.99

allows per match

Doncaster

1.18

Barrow

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Doncaster+0.00on par

Barrow+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Doncaster ↓

Barrow →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Doncaster or draw

72%

Doncaster or Barrow

74%

Draw or Barrow

54%

Winning margin

Doncaster wins by 2+

22%

Barrow wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Doncaster 1+ goals

77%

Doncaster 2+ goals

43%

Doncaster 3+ goals

18%

Barrow 1+ goals

66%

Barrow 2+ goals

29%

Barrow 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Doncaster (draw refunded)

62%

Barrow (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Doncaster at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.18 · 74 matches

Barrow away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.44 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Doncaster attack 1.47 + Barrow defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.46

Barrow attack 0.99 + Doncaster defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Doncaster scores more

46%

level

26%

Barrow scores more

28%

Doncaster at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Doncaster will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

J. Olowu

Doncaster · D

7.5

Match Events

18'

46'

54'

57'

74'

74'

84'

90+6'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DoncasterBarrow

Overview

49%Possession51%

7Total Shots9

1Corners3

8Fouls14

Shots

7Total Shots9

4On Target2

2Off Target2

1Blocked5

3Inside Box5

4Outside Box4

Passing

49%Possession51%

414Total Passes429

271Accurate Passes286

65%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

8Fouls14

1Yellow Cards2

3Offsides3