Barrow 3–2 Doncaster: Result & Stats | League Two

Barrow

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Doncaster

E. Acquah 85'

G. Garner 53'

T. Warren 11'

M. Faal 90+3'

J. Ironside 56'

9/30/2023

League Two · Round 10SO Legal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Barrow38%

×Draw27%

Doncaster35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BarrowExpected goals in this matchDoncaster

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.25

Barrow

1.31

Doncaster

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 138 home / 73 away

1.20

creates per match

1.38

1.12

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Barrow

1.20

Doncaster

1.38

allows per match

Barrow

1.12

Doncaster

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Barrow+0.00on par

Doncaster+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barrow ↓

Doncaster →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Barrow or draw

65%

Barrow or Doncaster

73%

Draw or Doncaster

62%

Winning margin

Barrow wins by 2+

17%

Doncaster wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Barrow 1+ goals

73%

Barrow 2+ goals

38%

Barrow 3+ goals

14%

Doncaster 1+ goals

71%

Doncaster 2+ goals

36%

Doncaster 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Barrow (draw refunded)

52%

Doncaster (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barrow at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.12 · 138 matches

Doncaster away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.42 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barrow attack 1.20 + Doncaster defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.31

Doncaster attack 1.38 + Barrow defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Barrow scores more

38%

level

27%

Doncaster scores more

35%

Barrow at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Barrow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

G. Garner

Barrow · F

7.3

Match Events

11'

11'

22'

26'

32'

36'

53'

56'

57'

57'

G. Broadbent← B. Close

57'

T. Roberts← Z. Westbrooke

58'

T. Rowe← T. Nixon

58'

M. Faal← H. Biggins

61'

S. Foley← R. Gotts

62'

L. Stephenson← T. Warren

65'

Kian Spence

71'

B. Whitfield← G. Garner

72'

E. Acquah← D. Telford

73'

85'

89'

90+3'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BarrowDoncaster

Overview

45%Possession55%

7Total Shots12

1Corners8

12Fouls16

Shots

7Total Shots12

4On Target4

2Off Target5

1Blocked3

4Inside Box6

3Outside Box6

Passing

45%Possession55%

366Total Passes438

250Accurate Passes321

68%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

12Fouls16

4Yellow Cards3

1Offsides1

Match Recap: Barrow vs Doncaster

Barrow beat Doncaster 3-2 in League Two on September 30, 2023.

Goals: T. Warren (11'), G. Garner (53'), J. Ironside (56'), E. Acquah (85'), M. Faal (90+3').

Doncaster controlled possession (55%) and registered 12 shots to 7.

The match was played at SO Legal Stadium in Barrow-in-Furness, Cumbria.

Barrow vs Doncaster — League Two 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Barrow vs Doncaster