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Doncaster vs Accrington ST — League Two 2018

Doncaster
Doncaster
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Accrington ST
Accrington ST
8/10/2024League TwoLeague Two · Round 1Eco-Power Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Doncaster47%
×Draw25%
Accrington ST27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Doncaster
1.55
Accrington ST
1.12

Doncaster creates 38% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 69 away

creates per match

Doncaster
1.47
Accrington ST
1.06

allows per match

Doncaster
1.18
Accrington ST
1.64

finishing

Doncaster+0.00on par
Accrington ST+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Doncaster ↓

Accrington ST →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Doncaster or draw
73%
Doncaster or Accrington ST
75%
Draw or Accrington ST
53%

Winning margin

Doncaster wins by 2+
24%
Accrington ST wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Doncaster 1+ goals
79%
Doncaster 2+ goals
46%
Doncaster 3+ goals
20%
Accrington ST 1+ goals
67%
Accrington ST 2+ goals
31%
Accrington ST 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Doncaster (draw refunded)
63%
Accrington ST (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Doncaster at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.18 · 74 matches

Accrington ST away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.64 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Doncaster attack 1.47 + Accrington ST defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.55

Accrington ST attack 1.06 + Doncaster defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Doncaster scores more
47%
level
25%
Accrington ST scores more
27%

Doncaster at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Doncaster will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Doncaster vs Accrington ST

Doncaster beat Accrington ST 4-1 in League Two on August 10, 2024.

The match was played at Eco-Power Stadium in Doncaster, South Yorkshire.