Accrington ST 1–2 Doncaster: Result & Stats

Accrington ST

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Doncaster

S. Conneely 57'

B. Ward 61' (OG)

H. Clifton 2'

2/22/2025

League Two · Round 33Wham Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Accrington ST38%

×Draw26%

Doncaster36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Accrington STExpected goals in this matchDoncaster

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.30

Accrington ST

1.36

Doncaster

1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 69 home / 73 away

1.30

creates per match

1.38

1.23

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Accrington ST

1.30

Doncaster

1.38

allows per match

Accrington ST

1.23

Doncaster

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Accrington ST+0.00on par

Doncaster+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Accrington ST ↓

Doncaster →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Accrington ST or draw

64%

Accrington ST or Doncaster

74%

Draw or Doncaster

62%

Winning margin

Accrington ST wins by 2+

18%

Doncaster wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Accrington ST 1+ goals

74%

Accrington ST 2+ goals

39%

Accrington ST 3+ goals

16%

Doncaster 1+ goals

73%

Doncaster 2+ goals

37%

Doncaster 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Accrington ST (draw refunded)

52%

Doncaster (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Accrington ST at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.23 · 69 matches

Doncaster away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.42 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Accrington ST attack 1.30 + Doncaster defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.36

Doncaster attack 1.38 + Accrington ST defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Accrington ST scores more

38%

level

26%

Doncaster scores more

36%

Accrington ST at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Accrington ST will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

O. Bailey

Doncaster · M

7.5

Match Events

2'

H. Clifton↳ J. Gibson

34'

J. Woods← S. Aljofree

36'

Robert Street

45'

Connor O'Brien

57'

S. Conneely↳ B. Woods

61'

B. WardOwn goal

66'

J. Ironside← R. Street

66'

P. Kelly← G. Broadbent

66'

E. Ennis← J. Gibson

69'

C. Brown← T. Walton

70'

A. Henderson← C. OBrien

70'

71'

79'

79'

80'

80'

83'

A. Hunter← S. Whalley

89'

Patrick Kelly

90+6'

Teddy Sharman-Lowe

90+5'

B. Sharp← L. Molyneux

90+8'

R. Wood← E. Ennis

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AccringtonDoncaster

Overview

60%Possession40%

8Total Shots7

4Corners3

16Fouls15

Shots

8Total Shots7

1On Target1

2Off Target5

5Blocked1

5Inside Box4

3Outside Box3

Passing

60%Possession40%

344Total Passes237

235Accurate Passes127

68%Pass Accuracy54%

Discipline

16Fouls15

5Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

2Offsides3