Doncaster 1–2 Accrington ST: Result & Stats

Doncaster

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Accrington ST

4/23/2019

League One · Round 44Keepmoat Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Doncaster48%

×Draw25%

Accrington ST27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DoncasterExpected goals in this matchAccrington ST

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.09

Doncaster

1.55

Accrington ST

1.09

Doncaster creates 42% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 110 away

1.40

creates per match

0.95

1.23

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Doncaster

1.40

Accrington ST

0.95

allows per match

Doncaster

1.23

Accrington ST

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Doncaster+0.00on par

Accrington ST+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Doncaster ↓

Accrington ST →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Doncaster or draw

73%

Doncaster or Accrington ST

75%

Draw or Accrington ST

52%

Winning margin

Doncaster wins by 2+

24%

Accrington ST wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Doncaster 1+ goals

79%

Doncaster 2+ goals

46%

Doncaster 3+ goals

20%

Accrington ST 1+ goals

66%

Accrington ST 2+ goals

30%

Accrington ST 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Doncaster (draw refunded)

64%

Accrington ST (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Doncaster at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.23 · 112 matches

Accrington ST away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.70 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Doncaster attack 1.40 + Accrington ST defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.55

Accrington ST attack 0.95 + Doncaster defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Doncaster scores more

48%

level

25%

Accrington ST scores more

27%

Doncaster at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Doncaster will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff