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Donau vs Elektra — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Donau
Donau
FT
0 – 3
Elektra
Elektra
6/1/2021Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Donau12%
×Draw16%
Elektra72%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Donau
1.00
Elektra
2.67

Elektra creates 167% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

creates per match

Donau
1.00
Elektra
2.67

allows per match

Donau
2.67
Elektra
1.00

finishing

Donau+0.00on par
Elektra+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Donau ↓

Elektra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–29%
0–38%
0–46%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Donau or draw
28%
Donau or Elektra
84%
Draw or Elektra
88%

Winning margin

Donau wins by 2+
4%
Elektra wins by 2+
51%

Team goals

Donau 1+ goals
63%
Donau 2+ goals
26%
Donau 3+ goals
8%
Elektra 1+ goals
93%
Elektra 2+ goals
74%
Elektra 3+ goals
49%

Draw no bet

Donau (draw refunded)
14%
Elektra (draw refunded)
86%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Donau at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.67 · 6 matches

Elektra away — creates 2.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Donau attack 1.00 + Elektra defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Elektra attack 2.67 + Donau defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Donau scores more
12%
level
16%
Elektra scores more
72%

Elektra at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Elektra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Donau 0 – 3 Elektra

Elektra beat Donau 3-0 in Friendlies Clubs on June 1, 2021.