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Donau vs Elektra — Landesliga - Wien 2019

Donau
Donau
CANC
21:00
Elektra
Elektra
5/10/2020Landesliga - WienLandesliga - Wien · Wien - 25Sportplatz SV Donau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Donau34%
×Draw26%
Elektra40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Donau
1.28
Elektra
1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 60 home / 13 away

creates per match

Donau
1.65
Elektra
1.77

allows per match

Donau
1.02
Elektra
0.92

finishing

Donau+0.00on par
Elektra+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Donau ↓

Elektra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Donau or draw
60%
Donau or Elektra
74%
Draw or Elektra
66%

Winning margin

Donau wins by 2+
15%
Elektra wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Donau 1+ goals
72%
Donau 2+ goals
37%
Donau 3+ goals
14%
Elektra 1+ goals
75%
Elektra 2+ goals
41%
Elektra 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Donau (draw refunded)
46%
Elektra (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Donau at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.02 · 60 matches

Elektra away — creates 1.77, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Donau attack 1.65 + Elektra defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.28

Elektra attack 1.77 + Donau defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Donau scores more
34%
level
26%
Elektra scores more
40%

Elektra at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Elektra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Donau face Elektra (Landesliga - Wien)

Landesliga - Wien returns with Donau hosting Elektra. Match starts May 10, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Donau host Elektra at Sportplatz SV Donau.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.