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Donau Linz vs Bad Schallerbach — Landesliga - Oberosterreich 2019

Donau Linz
Donau Linz
CANC
14:30
Bad Schallerbach
Bad Schallerbach
4/3/2021Landesliga - OberosterreichLandesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 20LINZ AG Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Donau Linz41%
×Draw23%
Bad Schallerbach36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Donau Linz
1.71
Bad Schallerbach
1.60

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 75 away

creates per match

Donau Linz
1.59
Bad Schallerbach
1.48

allows per match

Donau Linz
1.72
Bad Schallerbach
1.83

finishing

Donau Linz+0.00on par
Bad Schallerbach+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Donau Linz ↓

Bad Schallerbach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Donau Linz or draw
64%
Donau Linz or Bad Schallerbach
77%
Draw or Bad Schallerbach
59%

Winning margin

Donau Linz wins by 2+
21%
Bad Schallerbach wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Donau Linz 1+ goals
82%
Donau Linz 2+ goals
51%
Donau Linz 3+ goals
24%
Bad Schallerbach 1+ goals
80%
Bad Schallerbach 2+ goals
47%
Bad Schallerbach 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Donau Linz (draw refunded)
53%
Bad Schallerbach (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Donau Linz at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.72 · 29 matches

Bad Schallerbach away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.83 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Donau Linz attack 1.59 + Bad Schallerbach defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.71

Bad Schallerbach attack 1.48 + Donau Linz defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Donau Linz scores more
41%
level
23%
Bad Schallerbach scores more
36%

Donau Linz at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Donau Linz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Donau Linz face Bad Schallerbach (Landesliga - Oberosterreich)

Landesliga - Oberosterreich returns with Donau Linz hosting Bad Schallerbach. Match starts April 3, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Donau Linz host Bad Schallerbach at LINZ AG Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.