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Bad Schallerbach vs Donau Linz — Landesliga - Oberosterreich 2019

Bad Schallerbach
Bad Schallerbach
FT
3 – 2
Donau Linz
Donau Linz
9/8/2020Landesliga - OberosterreichLandesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 5Sportplatz SV Sedda Bad Schallerbach

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Bad Schallerbach65%
×Draw18%
Donau Linz17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bad Schallerbach
2.51
Donau Linz
1.22

Bad Schallerbach creates 106% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 30 away

creates per match

Bad Schallerbach
2.15
Donau Linz
1.03

allows per match

Bad Schallerbach
1.41
Donau Linz
2.87

finishing

Bad Schallerbach+0.00on par
Donau Linz+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bad Schallerbach ↓

Donau Linz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
72%28%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Bad Schallerbach or draw
83%
Bad Schallerbach or Donau Linz
82%
Draw or Donau Linz
35%

Winning margin

Bad Schallerbach wins by 2+
43%
Donau Linz wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Bad Schallerbach 1+ goals
92%
Bad Schallerbach 2+ goals
71%
Bad Schallerbach 3+ goals
45%
Donau Linz 1+ goals
70%
Donau Linz 2+ goals
34%
Donau Linz 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Bad Schallerbach (draw refunded)
79%
Donau Linz (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bad Schallerbach at home — creates 2.15, concedes 1.41 · 74 matches

Donau Linz away — creates 1.03, concedes 2.87 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bad Schallerbach attack 2.15 + Donau Linz defence 2.87 → ÷2 → 2.51

Donau Linz attack 1.03 + Bad Schallerbach defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Bad Schallerbach scores more
65%
level
18%
Donau Linz scores more
17%

Bad Schallerbach at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Bad Schallerbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bad Schallerbach vs Donau Linz

Bad Schallerbach beat Donau Linz 3-2 in Landesliga - Oberosterreich on September 8, 2020.

The match was played at Sportplatz SV Sedda Bad Schallerbach in Bad Schallerbach.