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Don Benito vs Don Álvaro — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Don Benito
Don Benito
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Don Álvaro
Don Álvaro
11/19/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 12Estadio Vicente Sanz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Don Benito75%
×Draw17%
Don Álvaro8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Don Benito
2.19
Don Álvaro
0.56

Don Benito creates 291% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 47 away

creates per match

Don Benito
2.50
Don Álvaro
0.72

allows per match

Don Benito
0.41
Don Álvaro
1.89

finishing

Don Benito+0.00on par
Don Álvaro+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Don Benito ↓

Don Álvaro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–18%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (15%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Don Benito or draw
92%
Don Benito or Don Álvaro
83%
Draw or Don Álvaro
25%

Winning margin

Don Benito wins by 2+
50%
Don Álvaro wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Don Benito 1+ goals
89%
Don Benito 2+ goals
64%
Don Benito 3+ goals
37%
Don Álvaro 1+ goals
43%
Don Álvaro 2+ goals
11%
Don Álvaro 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Don Benito (draw refunded)
90%
Don Álvaro (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Don Benito at home — creates 2.50, concedes 0.41 · 34 matches

Don Álvaro away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.89 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Don Benito attack 2.50 + Don Álvaro defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 2.19

Don Álvaro attack 0.72 + Don Benito defence 0.41 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Don Benito scores more
75%
level
17%
Don Álvaro scores more
8%

Don Benito at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Don Benito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14: Don Benito 3–0 Don Álvaro

Don Benito beat Don Álvaro 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on November 19, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Vicente Sanz in Don Benito.