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Don Álvaro vs Don Benito — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Don Álvaro
Don Álvaro
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Don Benito
Don Benito
4/7/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 29Estadio Municipal Pedro Manuel Barrero Macias

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Don Álvaro24%
×Draw27%
Don Benito49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Don Álvaro
0.94
Don Benito
1.46

Don Benito creates 55% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 34 away

creates per match

Don Álvaro
1.26
Don Benito
1.65

allows per match

Don Álvaro
1.26
Don Benito
0.62

finishing

Don Álvaro+0.00on par
Don Benito+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Don Álvaro ↓

Don Benito →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Don Álvaro or draw
51%
Don Álvaro or Don Benito
73%
Draw or Don Benito
76%

Winning margin

Don Álvaro wins by 2+
8%
Don Benito wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Don Álvaro 1+ goals
61%
Don Álvaro 2+ goals
24%
Don Álvaro 3+ goals
7%
Don Benito 1+ goals
77%
Don Benito 2+ goals
43%
Don Benito 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Don Álvaro (draw refunded)
33%
Don Benito (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Don Álvaro at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.26 · 47 matches

Don Benito away — creates 1.65, concedes 0.62 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Don Álvaro attack 1.26 + Don Benito defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.94

Don Benito attack 1.65 + Don Álvaro defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Don Álvaro scores more
24%
level
27%
Don Benito scores more
49%

Don Benito at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Don Benito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14: Don Álvaro 0–2 Don Benito

Don Benito beat Don Álvaro 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on April 7, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Pedro Manuel Barrero Macias in Don Álvaro.