Don Benito 3–0 Castuera: Result & Stats

Don Benito

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Castuera

10/8/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 5Estadio Vicente Sanz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Don Benito70%

×Draw19%

Castuera11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Don BenitoExpected goals in this matchCastuera

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

0.65

Don Benito

2.04

Castuera

0.65

Don Benito creates 214% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 34 away

2.50

creates per match

0.88

0.41

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Don Benito

2.50

Castuera

0.88

allows per match

Don Benito

0.41

Castuera

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Don Benito+0.00on par

Castuera+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Don Benito ↓

Castuera →

0–07%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–014%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–010%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–05%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Don Benito or draw

89%

Don Benito or Castuera

81%

Draw or Castuera

30%

Winning margin

Don Benito wins by 2+

44%

Castuera wins by 2+

Team goals

Don Benito 1+ goals

87%

Don Benito 2+ goals

60%

Don Benito 3+ goals

33%

Castuera 1+ goals

48%

Castuera 2+ goals

14%

Castuera 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Don Benito (draw refunded)

87%

Castuera (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Don Benito at home — creates 2.50, concedes 0.41 · 34 matches

Castuera away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.59 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Don Benito attack 2.50 + Castuera defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 2.04

Castuera attack 0.88 + Don Benito defence 0.41 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 70%?"

Don Benito scores more

70%

level

19%

Castuera scores more

11%

Don Benito at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Don Benito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff