Castuera 0–0 Don Benito: Result & Stats

Castuera

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Don Benito

2/18/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 22Estadio Manuel Ruiz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Castuera32%

×Draw25%

Don Benito43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CastueraExpected goals in this matchDon Benito

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

1.51

Castuera

1.26

Don Benito

1.51

Don Benito creates 20% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 34 away

1.91

creates per match

1.65

1.38

allows per match

0.62

creates per match

Castuera

1.91

Don Benito

1.65

allows per match

Castuera

1.38

Don Benito

0.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Castuera+0.00on par

Don Benito+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Castuera ↓

Don Benito →

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Castuera or draw

57%

Castuera or Don Benito

75%

Draw or Don Benito

68%

Winning margin

Castuera wins by 2+

13%

Don Benito wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Castuera 1+ goals

72%

Castuera 2+ goals

36%

Castuera 3+ goals

13%

Don Benito 1+ goals

78%

Don Benito 2+ goals

44%

Don Benito 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Castuera (draw refunded)

42%

Don Benito (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Castuera at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.38 · 34 matches

Don Benito away — creates 1.65, concedes 0.62 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Castuera attack 1.91 + Don Benito defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 1.26

Don Benito attack 1.65 + Castuera defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 43%?"

Castuera scores more

32%

level

25%

Don Benito scores more

43%

Don Benito at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Don Benito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff