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Don Benito vs Calamonte — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Don Benito
Don Benito
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Calamonte
Calamonte
11/9/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 10Estadio Vicente Sanz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Don Benito69%
×Draw20%
Calamonte12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Don Benito
2.04
Calamonte
0.70

Don Benito creates 191% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 111 away

creates per match

Don Benito
2.50
Calamonte
1.00

allows per match

Don Benito
0.41
Calamonte
1.57

finishing

Don Benito+0.00on par
Calamonte+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Don Benito ↓

Calamonte →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Don Benito or draw
88%
Don Benito or Calamonte
80%
Draw or Calamonte
31%

Winning margin

Don Benito wins by 2+
43%
Calamonte wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Don Benito 1+ goals
87%
Don Benito 2+ goals
60%
Don Benito 3+ goals
33%
Calamonte 1+ goals
50%
Calamonte 2+ goals
16%
Calamonte 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Don Benito (draw refunded)
85%
Calamonte (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Don Benito at home — creates 2.50, concedes 0.41 · 34 matches

Calamonte away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.57 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Don Benito attack 2.50 + Calamonte defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 2.04

Calamonte attack 1.00 + Don Benito defence 0.41 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Don Benito scores more
69%
level
20%
Calamonte scores more
12%

Don Benito at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Don Benito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Don Benito vs Calamonte

Don Benito beat Calamonte 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on November 9, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Vicente Sanz in Don Benito.