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Calamonte vs Don Benito — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Calamonte
Calamonte
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Don Benito
Don Benito
11/26/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 13Municipal Calamonteño

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Calamonte25%
×Draw27%
Don Benito48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Calamonte
0.92
Don Benito
1.38

Don Benito creates 50% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 34 away

creates per match

Calamonte
1.22
Don Benito
1.65

allows per match

Calamonte
1.10
Don Benito
0.62

finishing

Calamonte+0.00on par
Don Benito+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Calamonte ↓

Don Benito →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–114%
0–210%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Calamonte or draw
52%
Calamonte or Don Benito
73%
Draw or Don Benito
75%

Winning margin

Calamonte wins by 2+
9%
Don Benito wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Calamonte 1+ goals
60%
Calamonte 2+ goals
23%
Calamonte 3+ goals
7%
Don Benito 1+ goals
75%
Don Benito 2+ goals
40%
Don Benito 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Calamonte (draw refunded)
35%
Don Benito (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Calamonte at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.10 · 109 matches

Don Benito away — creates 1.65, concedes 0.62 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Calamonte attack 1.22 + Don Benito defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.92

Don Benito attack 1.65 + Calamonte defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Calamonte scores more
25%
level
27%
Don Benito scores more
48%

Don Benito at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Don Benito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Calamonte vs Don Benito

Calamonte beat Don Benito 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on November 26, 2023.

The match was played at Municipal Calamonteño in Calamonte.