Don Álvaro 1–1 CD Coria: Result & Stats

Don Álvaro

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

CD Coria

1/28/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 19Estadio Municipal Pedro Manuel Barrero Macias

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Don Álvaro26%

×Draw28%

CD Coria46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Don ÁlvaroExpected goals in this matchCD Coria

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.91

1.32

Don Álvaro

0.91

CD Coria

1.32

CD Coria creates 45% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 45 away

1.26

creates per match

1.38

1.26

allows per match

0.56

creates per match

Don Álvaro

1.26

CD Coria

1.38

allows per match

Don Álvaro

1.26

CD Coria

0.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Don Álvaro+0.00on par

CD Coria+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Don Álvaro ↓

CD Coria →

0–011%

0–114%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2–04%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Don Álvaro or draw

54%

Don Álvaro or CD Coria

72%

Draw or CD Coria

74%

Winning margin

Don Álvaro wins by 2+

CD Coria wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Don Álvaro 1+ goals

60%

Don Álvaro 2+ goals

23%

Don Álvaro 3+ goals

CD Coria 1+ goals

73%

CD Coria 2+ goals

38%

CD Coria 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Don Álvaro (draw refunded)

36%

CD Coria (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Don Álvaro at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.26 · 47 matches

CD Coria away — creates 1.38, concedes 0.56 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Don Álvaro attack 1.26 + CD Coria defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.91

CD Coria attack 1.38 + Don Álvaro defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 46%?"

Don Álvaro scores more

26%

level

28%

CD Coria scores more

46%

CD Coria at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "CD Coria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff