CD Coria 4–0 Don Álvaro: Result & Stats

CD Coria

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Don Álvaro

9/17/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 2Estadio La Isla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

CD Coria67%

×Draw20%

Don Álvaro13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CD CoriaExpected goals in this matchDon Álvaro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.02

0.74

CD Coria

2.02

Don Álvaro

0.74

CD Coria creates 173% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 47 away

2.14

creates per match

0.72

0.77

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

CD Coria

2.14

Don Álvaro

0.72

allows per match

CD Coria

0.77

Don Álvaro

1.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CD Coria+0.00on par

Don Álvaro+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CD Coria ↓

Don Álvaro →

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1–013%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–013%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–09%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

CD Coria or draw

87%

CD Coria or Don Álvaro

80%

Draw or Don Álvaro

33%

Winning margin

CD Coria wins by 2+

42%

Don Álvaro wins by 2+

Team goals

CD Coria 1+ goals

87%

CD Coria 2+ goals

60%

CD Coria 3+ goals

33%

Don Álvaro 1+ goals

52%

Don Álvaro 2+ goals

17%

Don Álvaro 3+ goals

Draw no bet

CD Coria (draw refunded)

84%

Don Álvaro (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

CD Coria at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.77 · 43 matches

Don Álvaro away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.89 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

CD Coria attack 2.14 + Don Álvaro defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 2.02

Don Álvaro attack 0.72 + CD Coria defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 67%?"

CD Coria scores more

67%

level

20%

Don Álvaro scores more

13%

CD Coria at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "CD Coria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff