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Don Álvaro vs Badajoz II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Don Álvaro
Don Álvaro
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Badajoz II
Badajoz II
11/14/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 10Estadio Municipal Pedro Manuel Barrero Macias

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Don Álvaro40%
×Draw29%
Badajoz II30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Don Álvaro
1.19
Badajoz II
0.99

Don Álvaro creates 20% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 15 away

creates per match

Don Álvaro
1.26
Badajoz II
0.73

allows per match

Don Álvaro
1.26
Badajoz II
1.13

finishing

Don Álvaro+0.00on par
Badajoz II+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Don Álvaro ↓

Badajoz II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Don Álvaro or draw
70%
Don Álvaro or Badajoz II
71%
Draw or Badajoz II
60%

Winning margin

Don Álvaro wins by 2+
17%
Badajoz II wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Don Álvaro 1+ goals
70%
Don Álvaro 2+ goals
33%
Don Álvaro 3+ goals
12%
Badajoz II 1+ goals
63%
Badajoz II 2+ goals
26%
Badajoz II 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Don Álvaro (draw refunded)
57%
Badajoz II (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Don Álvaro at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.26 · 47 matches

Badajoz II away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Don Álvaro attack 1.26 + Badajoz II defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.19

Badajoz II attack 0.73 + Don Álvaro defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Don Álvaro scores more
40%
level
29%
Badajoz II scores more
30%

Don Álvaro at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Don Álvaro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Don Álvaro 1 – 3 Badajoz II

Badajoz II beat Don Álvaro 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on November 14, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Pedro Manuel Barrero Macias in Don Álvaro.