Badajoz II 1–1 Don Álvaro: Result & Stats

Badajoz II

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Don Álvaro

3/20/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 25Campo B Eusebio Bejarano Vilaro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Badajoz II44%

×Draw27%

Don Álvaro29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Badajoz IIExpected goals in this matchDon Álvaro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.06

Badajoz II

1.38

Don Álvaro

1.06

Badajoz II creates 30% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 47 away

0.87

creates per match

0.72

1.40

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

Badajoz II

0.87

Don Álvaro

0.72

allows per match

Badajoz II

1.40

Don Álvaro

1.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Badajoz II+0.00on par

Don Álvaro+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Badajoz II ↓

Don Álvaro →

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Badajoz II or draw

71%

Badajoz II or Don Álvaro

73%

Draw or Don Álvaro

56%

Winning margin

Badajoz II wins by 2+

21%

Don Álvaro wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Badajoz II 1+ goals

75%

Badajoz II 2+ goals

40%

Badajoz II 3+ goals

16%

Don Álvaro 1+ goals

65%

Don Álvaro 2+ goals

29%

Don Álvaro 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Badajoz II (draw refunded)

60%

Don Álvaro (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Badajoz II at home — creates 0.87, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

Don Álvaro away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.89 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Badajoz II attack 0.87 + Don Álvaro defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.38

Don Álvaro attack 0.72 + Badajoz II defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 44%?"

Badajoz II scores more

44%

level

27%

Don Álvaro scores more

29%

Badajoz II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Badajoz II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff