Dom Bosco 1–1 Corumbaense: Result & Stats | Serie D

Dom Bosco

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Corumbaense

5/20/2018

Serie D · Round 5Arena Pantanal (Cuiabá, Mato Grosso)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Dom Bosco46%

×Draw31%

Corumbaense24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dom BoscoExpected goals in this matchCorumbaense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

0.75

Dom Bosco

1.17

Corumbaense

0.75

Dom Bosco creates 56% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

0.33

creates per match

0.50

1.00

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Dom Bosco

0.33

Corumbaense

0.50

allows per match

Dom Bosco

1.00

Corumbaense

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dom Bosco+0.00on par

Corumbaense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dom Bosco ↓

Corumbaense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Dom Bosco or draw

76%

Dom Bosco or Corumbaense

69%

Draw or Corumbaense

54%

Winning margin

Dom Bosco wins by 2+

20%

Corumbaense wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Dom Bosco 1+ goals

69%

Dom Bosco 2+ goals

33%

Dom Bosco 3+ goals

11%

Corumbaense 1+ goals

53%

Corumbaense 2+ goals

17%

Corumbaense 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Dom Bosco (draw refunded)

66%

Corumbaense (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dom Bosco at home — creates 0.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Corumbaense away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dom Bosco attack 0.33 + Corumbaense defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Corumbaense attack 0.50 + Dom Bosco defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Dom Bosco scores more

46%

level

31%

Corumbaense scores more

24%

Dom Bosco at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Dom Bosco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff