Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Corumbaense vs Dom Bosco — Serie D 2018

Corumbaense
Corumbaense
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Dom Bosco
Dom Bosco
4/28/2018Serie DSerie D · Round 2Estádio Artur Marinho (Corumbá, Mato Grosso do Sul)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Corumbaense70%
×Draw19%
Dom Bosco11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Corumbaense
2.08
Dom Bosco
0.67

Corumbaense creates 210% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

creates per match

Corumbaense
1.83
Dom Bosco
0.33

allows per match

Corumbaense
1.00
Dom Bosco
2.33

finishing

Corumbaense+0.00on par
Dom Bosco+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Corumbaense ↓

Dom Bosco →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Corumbaense or draw
89%
Corumbaense or Dom Bosco
81%
Draw or Dom Bosco
30%

Winning margin

Corumbaense wins by 2+
45%
Dom Bosco wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Corumbaense 1+ goals
87%
Corumbaense 2+ goals
61%
Corumbaense 3+ goals
34%
Dom Bosco 1+ goals
49%
Dom Bosco 2+ goals
15%
Dom Bosco 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Corumbaense (draw refunded)
87%
Dom Bosco (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Corumbaense at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

Dom Bosco away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Corumbaense attack 1.83 + Dom Bosco defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.08

Dom Bosco attack 0.33 + Corumbaense defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Corumbaense scores more
70%
level
19%
Dom Bosco scores more
11%

Corumbaense at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Corumbaense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Corumbaense vs Dom Bosco

Corumbaense beat Dom Bosco 2-1 in Serie D on April 28, 2018.

The match was played at Estádio Artur Marinho (Corumbá, Mato Grosso do Sul).