Dolomiti Bellunesi 1–2 Delta Porto Tolle

Dolomiti Bellunesi

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Delta Porto Tolle

4/24/2022

Serie D - Girone C · Group C - 30Stadio Comunale Polisportivo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Dolomiti Bellunesi46%

×Draw26%

Delta Porto Tolle28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dolomiti BellunesiExpected goals in this matchDelta Porto Tolle

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.10

Dolomiti Bellunesi

1.48

Delta Porto Tolle

1.10

Dolomiti Bellunesi creates 35% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 30 away

1.59

creates per match

1.13

1.07

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Dolomiti Bellunesi

1.59

Delta Porto Tolle

1.13

allows per match

Dolomiti Bellunesi

1.07

Delta Porto Tolle

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dolomiti Bellunesi+0.00on par

Delta Porto Tolle+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dolomiti Bellunesi ↓

Delta Porto Tolle →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Dolomiti Bellunesi or draw

72%

Dolomiti Bellunesi or Delta Porto Tolle

74%

Draw or Delta Porto Tolle

54%

Winning margin

Dolomiti Bellunesi wins by 2+

23%

Delta Porto Tolle wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Dolomiti Bellunesi 1+ goals

77%

Dolomiti Bellunesi 2+ goals

43%

Dolomiti Bellunesi 3+ goals

19%

Delta Porto Tolle 1+ goals

67%

Delta Porto Tolle 2+ goals

30%

Delta Porto Tolle 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Dolomiti Bellunesi (draw refunded)

62%

Delta Porto Tolle (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dolomiti Bellunesi at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.07 · 70 matches

Delta Porto Tolle away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.37 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dolomiti Bellunesi attack 1.59 + Delta Porto Tolle defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.48

Delta Porto Tolle attack 1.13 + Dolomiti Bellunesi defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Dolomiti Bellunesi scores more

46%

level

26%

Delta Porto Tolle scores more

28%

Dolomiti Bellunesi at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Dolomiti Bellunesi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff