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Delta Porto Tolle vs Dolomiti Bellunesi — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Delta Porto Tolle
Delta Porto Tolle
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Dolomiti Bellunesi
Dolomiti Bellunesi
12/8/2021Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 13Stadio Comunale Umberto Cavallari

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Delta Porto Tolle32%
×Draw25%
Dolomiti Bellunesi43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Delta Porto Tolle
1.26
Dolomiti Bellunesi
1.51

Dolomiti Bellunesi creates 20% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 70 away

creates per match

Delta Porto Tolle
1.29
Dolomiti Bellunesi
1.47

allows per match

Delta Porto Tolle
1.55
Dolomiti Bellunesi
1.23

finishing

Delta Porto Tolle+0.00on par
Dolomiti Bellunesi+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Delta Porto Tolle ↓

Dolomiti Bellunesi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Delta Porto Tolle or draw
57%
Delta Porto Tolle or Dolomiti Bellunesi
75%
Draw or Dolomiti Bellunesi
68%

Winning margin

Delta Porto Tolle wins by 2+
13%
Dolomiti Bellunesi wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Delta Porto Tolle 1+ goals
72%
Delta Porto Tolle 2+ goals
36%
Delta Porto Tolle 3+ goals
13%
Dolomiti Bellunesi 1+ goals
78%
Dolomiti Bellunesi 2+ goals
44%
Dolomiti Bellunesi 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Delta Porto Tolle (draw refunded)
42%
Dolomiti Bellunesi (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Delta Porto Tolle at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.55 · 31 matches

Dolomiti Bellunesi away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.23 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Delta Porto Tolle attack 1.29 + Dolomiti Bellunesi defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.26

Dolomiti Bellunesi attack 1.47 + Delta Porto Tolle defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Delta Porto Tolle scores more
32%
level
25%
Dolomiti Bellunesi scores more
43%

Dolomiti Bellunesi at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Dolomiti Bellunesi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Delta Porto Tolle vs Dolomiti Bellunesi

Dolomiti Bellunesi beat Delta Porto Tolle 1-0 in Serie D - Girone C on December 8, 2021.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Umberto Cavallari in Porto Tolle.