Dolomiti Bellunesi 2–4 Cartigliano: Result & Stats

Dolomiti Bellunesi

FT

2 – 4

HT: 1 – 1

Cartigliano

F. Artioli 90'

A. Cossalter 43'

G. Scapin 90+2'

A. Buson 77'

F. Stevanin 56'

L. Barzon 6'

10/2/2022

Serie D - Girone C · Group C - 5Stadio Comunale Polisportivo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Dolomiti Bellunesi42%

×Draw25%

Cartigliano32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dolomiti BellunesiExpected goals in this matchCartigliano

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.25

Dolomiti Bellunesi

1.48

Cartigliano

1.25

Dolomiti Bellunesi creates 18% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 49 away

1.59

creates per match

1.43

1.07

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Dolomiti Bellunesi

1.59

Cartigliano

1.43

allows per match

Dolomiti Bellunesi

1.07

Cartigliano

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dolomiti Bellunesi+0.00on par

Cartigliano+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dolomiti Bellunesi ↓

Cartigliano →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Dolomiti Bellunesi or draw

68%

Dolomiti Bellunesi or Cartigliano

75%

Draw or Cartigliano

58%

Winning margin

Dolomiti Bellunesi wins by 2+

21%

Cartigliano wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Dolomiti Bellunesi 1+ goals

77%

Dolomiti Bellunesi 2+ goals

43%

Dolomiti Bellunesi 3+ goals

19%

Cartigliano 1+ goals

71%

Cartigliano 2+ goals

36%

Cartigliano 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Dolomiti Bellunesi (draw refunded)

57%

Cartigliano (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dolomiti Bellunesi at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.07 · 70 matches

Cartigliano away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.37 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dolomiti Bellunesi attack 1.59 + Cartigliano defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.48

Cartigliano attack 1.43 + Dolomiti Bellunesi defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Dolomiti Bellunesi scores more

42%

level

25%

Cartigliano scores more

32%

Dolomiti Bellunesi at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Dolomiti Bellunesi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

L. Barzon

43'

A. Cossalter

56'

F. Stevanin

77'

A. Buson

90'

F. Artioli

90+2'

G. Scapin

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff