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Cartigliano vs Dolomiti Bellunesi — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Cartigliano
Cartigliano
FT
5 – 0
Dolomiti Bellunesi
Dolomiti Bellunesi
A. Buson 90'
E. Di Gennaro 82'
A. Gjoni 58', 2'
F. Stevanin 56'
12/5/2021Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 12Stadio Fair Play di Cartigliano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Cartigliano36%
×Draw26%
Dolomiti Bellunesi38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cartigliano
1.33
Dolomiti Bellunesi
1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 47 home / 70 away

creates per match

Cartigliano
1.43
Dolomiti Bellunesi
1.47

allows per match

Cartigliano
1.28
Dolomiti Bellunesi
1.23

finishing

Cartigliano+0.00on par
Dolomiti Bellunesi+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cartigliano ↓

Dolomiti Bellunesi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Cartigliano or draw
62%
Cartigliano or Dolomiti Bellunesi
74%
Draw or Dolomiti Bellunesi
64%

Winning margin

Cartigliano wins by 2+
16%
Dolomiti Bellunesi wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Cartigliano 1+ goals
74%
Cartigliano 2+ goals
38%
Cartigliano 3+ goals
15%
Dolomiti Bellunesi 1+ goals
75%
Dolomiti Bellunesi 2+ goals
40%
Dolomiti Bellunesi 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Cartigliano (draw refunded)
48%
Dolomiti Bellunesi (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cartigliano at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.28 · 47 matches

Dolomiti Bellunesi away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.23 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cartigliano attack 1.43 + Dolomiti Bellunesi defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.33

Dolomiti Bellunesi attack 1.47 + Cartigliano defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Cartigliano scores more
36%
level
26%
Dolomiti Bellunesi scores more
38%

Dolomiti Bellunesi at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Dolomiti Bellunesi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'
A. Gjoni
56'
F. Stevanin
58'
A. Gjoni
82'
E. Di Gennaro
90'
A. Buson

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: Cartigliano 5–0 Dolomiti Bellunesi

Cartigliano beat Dolomiti Bellunesi 5-0 in Serie D - Girone C on December 5, 2021.

Goals: A. Gjoni (2', 58'), F. Stevanin (56'), E. Di Gennaro (82'), A. Buson (90').

The match was played at Stadio Fair Play di Cartigliano in Cartigliano.